Premier League · 2026–27 · A gentleman's wager

The Haircut Clause

If Florian Wirtz scores 20 Premier League goals this season, somebody is getting a brand-new haircut. No backsies.

0/20
League goals so far 20 still needed 33 games left
Goals0
Assists1
Shots · on target12·3
Games left33
Needed per game0.61

Live probability counter

Chance of a haircut

0.048%

That's 1 in 2,062.

Hair is mostly safe. Mostly.

Haircut-o-meter HAIRCUT-O-METER

The simulator

Play the season. Again. And again.

Each run plays out Liverpool's remaining league games with Wirtz's luck rolled fresh. Any run that reaches 20 lands in the red: that's a haircut.

Seasons0
Haircuts0
Best run0
Bars show how many seasons ended on each goal total.

The road to 20

Pace check

The dashed line is the pace that gets to 20 by the last day of the season. The red line is Wirtz.

The goal wall

0 of 20 filled

Every league goal gets a slot. Fill all twenty and the clippers come out.

Match by match

The evidence

Every Liverpool league game so far, newest first, with the haircut odds as they stood at full time.

Swipe for older games →

The small print

How the odds work

Scoring rateBuilt from his Premier League record: five goals last season plus everything this season, with his Bundesliga years counted at a discount. The model is never certain of his rate, which is what keeps a hot streak possible.

Playing timeHe's assumed to feature in 85% of Liverpool's remaining league games, allowing for injuries, rotation and the odd rest.

What countsPremier League goals only, 2026–27 season. Cup and Champions League goals don't count. Neither do penalties in training.

Where the numbers come fromMatch data from ESPN, rechecked every few minutes while this page is open.